Results
An NIP against gonorrhoea could lead to 50,000 (95% credible interval, CrI 31,000-80,000) and 849,000 (95%CrI 476,000-1,568,000) gonorrhoea infections being averted over 10 and 70 years, respectively, in England, for a vaccine with 31% efficacy and 85% uptake. This is equivalent to 25% (95%CrI 17–33%) of heterosexual infections being averted over 70 years. Vaccine impact is predicted to increase over time and be greatest among 13–18-year-olds (39% of infections 95%CrI 31–49% averted) over 70 years. Varying vaccine efficacy and duration of protection had a noticeable effect on impact. Catch-up and booster vaccination increased the short- and long-term impact, respectively.